Security Overview for Syria

Syria is an autocratic, secular state governed by the minority Ba'ath Party. Under the leadership of President Bashar Al-Assad, Syria finds itself increasingly isolated internationally. Assad, the son of former long-time President Hafiz Al-Assad, has aligned Syria with Iran and Hizballah to battle Western influence. Al-Assad has angered not only former allies in the E.U. but also moderate Sunni Arab leaders in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The regime, however, continues to believe that it is taking the right path and maintains support for Hizballah and insurgent groups in Iraq. As the security situation in the country deteriorates amid a government crackdown, international sanctions appear set to expand, and isolation of the regime has deepened.

The possibility of a war between Syria and Israel has been omnipresent. Syria's arms supplies to Hizballah (despite U.N. resolutions) and rising "war talk" from political leaders in Damascus, especially Al-Assad, increase the threat of such a conflict. In September 2007 Israel attacked a secret facility, allegedly related to nuclear weapons, in eastern Syria. On several occasions, Israeli Air Force jets attacked a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) camp northwest of Damascus, near the Lebanese border.

It is unclear if the regime will survive the current wave of protests, but it has shown a willingness to employ deadly force. Among protesters, many have implored Al-Assad to turn his weapons on Israel in the Golan Heights rather than his own citizens. This rhetoric is likely used to make a point about the government's crackdown, but anti-Israeli fervor is sure to grow if the Al-Assad regime manages to rein in protests sweeping Syria.

Crime, both petty and violent, is low in Syria. Syria's strong traditional family values and strong internal security services (which are present throughout the country) account for the low crime rate. Petty crime is most common in the Hamadia Souq and the red light district in Damascus and in bars in central Aleppo. Avoid travel to these areas after dark. Follow common sense precautions and stay away from disreputable districts. Avoid unlit areas at night and be alert for pickpockets and muggers. While men in Syria do not usually harass women, females should maintain a low profile and dress very conservatively to avoid being the target of verbal and physical sexual abuse or harassment. Women should avoid traveling alone generally and never travel alone at night. Travel by public transportation is generally secure, but it increases the risk of petty crime.

Prior to 2011, civil unrest was uncommon in Syria, unless the protests and demonstrations served the interests of the government. Most demonstrations were in response to international developments and are anti-Western in sentiment (often directing ire at the U.S. or Israel). Following the U.S. bombing of Iraq in 1998, angry Syrian civilians violently attacked the U.S. Embassy, causing significant property damage. Several large but orderly state-sponsored demonstrations were held in Damascus before and during the 2003 war in Iraq. In 2006, the embassies of Denmark and Norway were torched during a rally to protest the publication of cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad.

Domestic opposition groups have typically been weak in Syria. In 2006-2007 the government launched a major crackdown against opposition activists. External opposition groups remain weak, but are increasingly becoming more united. The main external opposition group is the National Salvation Front, whose leadership is shared primarily by former Syrian Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam and the Muslim Brotherhood. Both groups have been emboldened by the killing of protesters by Syrian security forces, especially after the leaking of a document allegedly outlining a government plan to use agent provocateurs among crowds of demonstrators to shoot police officers in order to whip up revenge attacks against protesters). Events since the leak have largely born out the scenarios mentioned, and the popular response has electrified opposition to the government. Additionally, there are increasing concerns that the anti-government movement may be transitioning into that of a violent insurgency, as defectors from the armed forces have reportedly carried out a number of attacks against regime targets.

While Syria is a state sponsor of terrorism, attacks in Syria have been extremely rare. Several minor attempted attacks occurred during the mid-2000s. Security forces allegedly clashed with suspected terrorists several times in recent years. These clashes usually took place during sensitive political periods for Syria and may have been staged by the government. Attacks on Westerners and Western interests are, however, possible - especially as the number of hard-line Islamists continues to grow.

Copyright © 2011 iJET International, Inc. All rights reserved.

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How we determine a country's overall security rating

Each country's current overall risk rating is determined by considering categorical assessments in kidnapping, crime, security services, civil unrest, terrorism and geopolitical stability.

Minimal Threat

Most countries in this category have a stable political infrastructure and economic system with a low rate of unemployment. These countries have overall low rates of crime. Violent crime is almost non-existent. Petty crimes do occur, but are usually limited to petty theft and pick pocketing. Police and military services are trained and trustworthy, but may lack investigative and crime fighting equipment and skills. Strikes and demonstrations are rare and if they occur are usually well planned and managed and rarely spurn violent incidents. There are no known insurgent or terrorist groups.

Low Threat

Most countries in this category will have a stable political infrastructure and economic system with some unemployment. These countries have low crime rates. Violent crimes are rare and usually involve associated persons. Petty crimes such as theft and pick pocketing are a concern and travelers may be directly targeted. Risks can usually be mitigated with simple security measures. Police and military services are well trained and trustworthy but may lack adequate investigative equipment. Incidents of civil unrest such as strikes and demonstrations may disrupt daily life, but are usually non-violent and well coordinated. These countries may experience rare instances of domestic terrorist activity but are not threatened by international terrorism. Anti-government groups may be present but have little or no impact.

Moderate Threat

Most countries in this category will have a somewhat stable political infrastructure and economic system but unemployment and rising inflation cause some instability. These countries have moderate levels of crime. Violent crimes such as sexual assault and murder occur, but few are random incidents. Petty crimes, especially theft or destruction of unattended property, are common. Incidents of armed assault also occur. More threatening crimes are usually limited to urban areas or certain parts of the country. Police and military services may suffer from corruption and lack of training, but are generally adequate for investigations. Strikes and demonstrations can disrupt daily life and may easily spur violence. This country may have a variety of anti-government and domestic terrorist groups that are organized and outspoken against the government and may conduct incidents of violence. Small cells of international terrorist organizations exist but incidents of terrorism are not common.

High Threat

Most countries in the category have unstable political infrastructure and economic system with high rates of unemployment and inflation. Violent and petty crimes are common in most areas and random acts of violence do occur. Some areas may have a general state of lawlessness. Traveling alone, especially at night, should be avoided. There will be a large infiltration of arms in the population. Police and military services lack training and equipment. Both institutions are prone to corruption. Strikes and demonstrations are common and usually violent. Domestic terrorist and insurgent groups are active and well organized. They conduct bombings and other violent acts against government, local and international interests. International terrorist groups exist and may conduct activities within the country and abroad. The country may be involved in cross border warfare.

Extreme Threat

Most countries in this category lack a political infrastructure with any democratic premise and have a high rate of corruption. The economy is unstable with a high rate of unemployment. There is a very high rate of violent and petty crime. A general state of lawlessness exists in most urban and remote areas. Overland travel through the country must be avoided. Many domestic terrorist or rebel groups exist and are frequently active; areas of the country may be controlled by rebel factions. International terrorist operations may be well organized and active. Anti- government actions and large demonstrations are common and violent. Cross border and internal warfare occur.