Security Overview for Sudan

Sudan's 20-year civil war pitted Arab-Muslim northerners against black animist and Christian southerners. It ended in 2003 with a ceasefire agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). Months of peace negotiations led to the comprehensive peace agreement (CPA), finalized in January 2005, and a power-sharing constitution, signed in July 2005. The two parties agreed that the south should be autonomous for six years before a regional referendum on its political future.

As the six-year deadline approached, tensions between the northern National Congress Party (NCP) and southern SPLM/A politicians boiled over in May 2011, leading to violent confrontations in the disputed Abyei region and South Kordofan State. The two sides temporarily reached a peace deal which halted violence in the weeks leading up to the south's independence in July 2011. The Republic of South Sudan peacefully declared independence on July 9; however, sporadic clashes between rival militias and security forces are possible along the north-south border.

Security conditions in Khartoum, Port Sudan, and other northern areas are reasonably stable. Violent crime is rare, as are incidents of mugging and robbery. Strikes are uncommon, but demonstrations do occur, usually taking place in Khartoum on Fridays. If violence is expected, authorities will deploy security forces and may institute a curfew. Individuals should take the same security precautions as they would in any other major city.

The security situation in southern Sudan is volatile, with sporadic violence and criminal activity. Violent crime is a problem in both urban and rural areas. Small arms remain in circulation and there are regular reports of armed militias. In 2011, reports indicated violent acts perpetrated by armed militias rebelling against the southern government in Malakal town as well as Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei states.

In Juba, incidents of crime against Westerners have been infrequent, but there is a risk of armed robbery and burglary. There have also been increased incidents of gun crime, including the assassination of an SPLM government minister in February 2011.

In the Darfur states, widespread criminal activity and lawlessness exacerbate an already unstable environment that features frequent violent confrontations between rebel and government forces. Poor security and living conditions within internally displaced people (IDP) camps have the potential to result in violence. Violent clashes between rebel groups and government forces have interrupted ground and air travel. Humanitarian convoys have been subject to attack and subsequent looting. Since 2009, there have been an increasing number of kidnappings of humanitarian personnel.

In eastern Sudan, the overall security situation has improved significantly. In October 2006, the Sudanese government and the Eastern Front rebel coalition signed a peace agreement in Asmara, Eritrea, ending a 12-year insurgency. Resolving security problems in the east has been a government priority, primarily due to the threat the Eastern Front posed to oil pipelines. Though the situation is generally improving, there have been some instances of violence involving small militia groups in the east that are opposed to Khartoum.

Public transportation is not particularly safe or comfortable, and is not recommended for foreigners. Public buses, trains, and ferries are frequently overcrowded and in poor condition. Overland travel is dangerous due to banditry and other threats; visitors must obtain a permit to travel outside Khartoum. A separate permit is required for travel to southern areas under SPLM/A control.

South Sudan
In July 2011, South Sudan officially declared its independence; however, the border demarcation process, which has yet to be finalized, may cause further conflict. Heavy fighting erupted between Sudanese government forces and the SPLA in the border town of Abyei in May 2011, displacing around 100,000 people. Violent clashes in and around the northern controlled city of Kadugli, capital of South Kordofan State, around 200 km (124 miles) north of Abyei, were also reported. This outbreak of violence has raised tensions between the governments in Juba and Khartoum and could reignite the civil war.

The security situation is volatile, with sporadic violence and criminal activity. Violent crime is a problem in both urban and rural areas. The circulation of small arms supports the ongoing activities of local militias. In 2011, reports indicated violent acts perpetrated by armed militias rebelling against the southern government in Malakal town as well as Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei states.

In Juba, incidents of crime against Westerners are infrequent, but there are risks of armed robbery or burglary. Gun crime is on the rise.

The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) is thought to be responsible for attacks on villages in Western Equatoria State in 2011, resulting in a small number of fatalities. LRA attacks have moved out of south Sudan and into north and southeastern Central African Republic. In the past, attacks in south Sudan have taken place in villages during daylight hours and close to population centers.

During the rainy season many roads become impassable, causing parts of the region to be inaccessible from July-October/November. Security is a problem on all roads including the Juba-Bor road.

Western Sudan (Darfur States)
In the Darfur states, widespread criminal activity and lawlessness exacerbate an already unstable environment that features frequent violent confrontations between rebel and government forces. Poor security and living conditions within IDP camps have the potential to result in violence. Violent clashes between rebel groups and government forces have and can interrupt ground and air travel. Humanitarian convoys have been subject to attack and subsequent looting. Since 2009, there has been an increasing number of kidnappings of humanitarian personnel.

Eastern Sudan
In eastern Sudan, the overall security situation has improved significantly. In October 2006, the Sudanese government and the Eastern Front rebel coalition signed a peace agreement in Asmara, Eritrea, ending a 12-year insurgency. Resolving security problems in the east has been a government priority, primarily due to the threat the Eastern Front posed to oil pipelines. Though the situation is generally improving, there have been some instances of violence involving small militia groups in the east that are opposed to Khartoum.

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How we determine a country's overall security rating

Each country's current overall risk rating is determined by considering categorical assessments in kidnapping, crime, security services, civil unrest, terrorism and geopolitical stability.

Minimal Threat

Most countries in this category have a stable political infrastructure and economic system with a low rate of unemployment. These countries have overall low rates of crime. Violent crime is almost non-existent. Petty crimes do occur, but are usually limited to petty theft and pick pocketing. Police and military services are trained and trustworthy, but may lack investigative and crime fighting equipment and skills. Strikes and demonstrations are rare and if they occur are usually well planned and managed and rarely spurn violent incidents. There are no known insurgent or terrorist groups.

Low Threat

Most countries in this category will have a stable political infrastructure and economic system with some unemployment. These countries have low crime rates. Violent crimes are rare and usually involve associated persons. Petty crimes such as theft and pick pocketing are a concern and travelers may be directly targeted. Risks can usually be mitigated with simple security measures. Police and military services are well trained and trustworthy but may lack adequate investigative equipment. Incidents of civil unrest such as strikes and demonstrations may disrupt daily life, but are usually non-violent and well coordinated. These countries may experience rare instances of domestic terrorist activity but are not threatened by international terrorism. Anti-government groups may be present but have little or no impact.

Moderate Threat

Most countries in this category will have a somewhat stable political infrastructure and economic system but unemployment and rising inflation cause some instability. These countries have moderate levels of crime. Violent crimes such as sexual assault and murder occur, but few are random incidents. Petty crimes, especially theft or destruction of unattended property, are common. Incidents of armed assault also occur. More threatening crimes are usually limited to urban areas or certain parts of the country. Police and military services may suffer from corruption and lack of training, but are generally adequate for investigations. Strikes and demonstrations can disrupt daily life and may easily spur violence. This country may have a variety of anti-government and domestic terrorist groups that are organized and outspoken against the government and may conduct incidents of violence. Small cells of international terrorist organizations exist but incidents of terrorism are not common.

High Threat

Most countries in the category have unstable political infrastructure and economic system with high rates of unemployment and inflation. Violent and petty crimes are common in most areas and random acts of violence do occur. Some areas may have a general state of lawlessness. Traveling alone, especially at night, should be avoided. There will be a large infiltration of arms in the population. Police and military services lack training and equipment. Both institutions are prone to corruption. Strikes and demonstrations are common and usually violent. Domestic terrorist and insurgent groups are active and well organized. They conduct bombings and other violent acts against government, local and international interests. International terrorist groups exist and may conduct activities within the country and abroad. The country may be involved in cross border warfare.

Extreme Threat

Most countries in this category lack a political infrastructure with any democratic premise and have a high rate of corruption. The economy is unstable with a high rate of unemployment. There is a very high rate of violent and petty crime. A general state of lawlessness exists in most urban and remote areas. Overland travel through the country must be avoided. Many domestic terrorist or rebel groups exist and are frequently active; areas of the country may be controlled by rebel factions. International terrorist operations may be well organized and active. Anti- government actions and large demonstrations are common and violent. Cross border and internal warfare occur.