Security Overview for Madagascar

The security situation in Madagascar remains moderately volatile due to the lingering effects of a political crisis that has left the country near economic ruin. The political and security situations have deteriorated since the former mayor of Antananarivo, Andry Rajoelina, overthrew former President Marc Ravalomanana in a bloodless March 2009 coup. In late 2010, Rajoelina reached an agreement with a small number of opposition parties in order to remain in power and form a coalition government until the organization of fresh presidential polls. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has been involved in working out a road map to end the crisis in Madagascar. Tensions between the three main opposition parties, each headed by a former president, and Rajoelina's ruling coalition linger and occasionally produce incidents of violent civil unrest.

The decline in economic conditions in recent years has triggered an increase in crime. Armed robberies and home invasions occur often enough that expatriates and others in Madagascar often hire local private security companies to provide protection. Petty crimes, such as pickpocketing and purse-snatching, are also common in areas frequented by visitors, such as hotels, the airport, and beaches.

Security services in Madagascar are not sufficiently trained or equipped; however, they are usually diligent in investigating criminal incidents involving travelers and expatriates.

The most secure option for road transportation is a private car - preferably with four-wheel drive - and a trusted local driver. It is best to conduct road travel only during daytime. Avoid public transportation, including buses and taxis, as armed gangs and petty thieves pose a threat to travelers at some stations and stops. Thieves and scam artists also operate at the international airport in Antananarivo. Maintain awareness of your surroundings and your property at all times while at the airport.

The threat of civil unrest is high following the 2009 coup. Increased political tensions continue to lead led to small opposition protests. Security forces usually resort to tear gas and other methods to disperse opposition protesters. Gatherings of protesters can grow in number to thousands of people during major periods of civil unrest.

The threat of international terrorism is low. People in Madagascar do not generally express anti-Western sentiments, and Rajoelina's incumbent government is working diligently to improve the impression of Madagascar in the eyes of the international community, which has isolated the island following the 2009 political crisis. There is no known threat from domestic terrorist groups.

There is a moderate threat of kidnapping in Madagascar. Criminal gangs have mainly focused on kidnapping wealthy locals, but in 2004, kidnappers also targeted foreigners, including diplomats. However, recent reports on kidnapping have been scarce. If abduction occurs, expatriates should remember that kidnappers usually have a financial motive and may demand a ransom. To reduce vulnerability, maintain as low a profile as possible, vary routes and times of travel, maintain awareness of surroundings, and travel with companions whenever possible. Exercise a high degree of caution throughout the island.

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How we determine a country's overall security rating

Each country's current overall risk rating is determined by considering categorical assessments in kidnapping, crime, security services, civil unrest, terrorism and geopolitical stability.

Minimal Threat

Most countries in this category have a stable political infrastructure and economic system with a low rate of unemployment. These countries have overall low rates of crime. Violent crime is almost non-existent. Petty crimes do occur, but are usually limited to petty theft and pick pocketing. Police and military services are trained and trustworthy, but may lack investigative and crime fighting equipment and skills. Strikes and demonstrations are rare and if they occur are usually well planned and managed and rarely spurn violent incidents. There are no known insurgent or terrorist groups.

Low Threat

Most countries in this category will have a stable political infrastructure and economic system with some unemployment. These countries have low crime rates. Violent crimes are rare and usually involve associated persons. Petty crimes such as theft and pick pocketing are a concern and travelers may be directly targeted. Risks can usually be mitigated with simple security measures. Police and military services are well trained and trustworthy but may lack adequate investigative equipment. Incidents of civil unrest such as strikes and demonstrations may disrupt daily life, but are usually non-violent and well coordinated. These countries may experience rare instances of domestic terrorist activity but are not threatened by international terrorism. Anti-government groups may be present but have little or no impact.

Moderate Threat

Most countries in this category will have a somewhat stable political infrastructure and economic system but unemployment and rising inflation cause some instability. These countries have moderate levels of crime. Violent crimes such as sexual assault and murder occur, but few are random incidents. Petty crimes, especially theft or destruction of unattended property, are common. Incidents of armed assault also occur. More threatening crimes are usually limited to urban areas or certain parts of the country. Police and military services may suffer from corruption and lack of training, but are generally adequate for investigations. Strikes and demonstrations can disrupt daily life and may easily spur violence. This country may have a variety of anti-government and domestic terrorist groups that are organized and outspoken against the government and may conduct incidents of violence. Small cells of international terrorist organizations exist but incidents of terrorism are not common.

High Threat

Most countries in the category have unstable political infrastructure and economic system with high rates of unemployment and inflation. Violent and petty crimes are common in most areas and random acts of violence do occur. Some areas may have a general state of lawlessness. Traveling alone, especially at night, should be avoided. There will be a large infiltration of arms in the population. Police and military services lack training and equipment. Both institutions are prone to corruption. Strikes and demonstrations are common and usually violent. Domestic terrorist and insurgent groups are active and well organized. They conduct bombings and other violent acts against government, local and international interests. International terrorist groups exist and may conduct activities within the country and abroad. The country may be involved in cross border warfare.

Extreme Threat

Most countries in this category lack a political infrastructure with any democratic premise and have a high rate of corruption. The economy is unstable with a high rate of unemployment. There is a very high rate of violent and petty crime. A general state of lawlessness exists in most urban and remote areas. Overland travel through the country must be avoided. Many domestic terrorist or rebel groups exist and are frequently active; areas of the country may be controlled by rebel factions. International terrorist operations may be well organized and active. Anti- government actions and large demonstrations are common and violent. Cross border and internal warfare occur.